Article / Topic: Managing risk in an unstable world

Written By:  Ian Bremmer

June: 2005     

Summary

Company meanwhile fears unpredictable change even as they seek profit. A freshly privatized industry in turkey. Recently tendered oil blocks in Libya. Global investment decision on economic data. Economic risk involve on countries per capita income, growth &inflation. Political risk is influenced by the passage law & rise of popular movement. All the factor that might political stabilizes or de stabilizes. Risk depends upon the context of the investment decision.

 Business active only in develop nation should factor political risk in to the planning scenarios. Political risk analysis is more subjective than its economic counterpart and demand that leaders grapple not just with broad. Article also helps corporate leader become better information about the myriad shifting influence on global investment. Business strategist can minimize risk.

In fact historically some of the business world’s best political risk analysis has com from Multinational Corporation like Shell &AIG. International markets are most interconnected. If china rapidly growing economy a soft landing & crashing into recession. So the impact on India, Russia & US. China’s political decision today will have dramatic long term effect on its market. Business shifts some other countries where labor is cheap such as china.

Economic risk & political risk analysis addressed two fundamentally different. Economic risk analysis tells corporate leaders. It saw clear skies. Political analyst produced a darker & move accurate. It has been able to detect the silver lining in economist dark clouds. With emerging markets like china.

Political unstable countries like Saudi Arabia business leader are turning to political risk analysis to measure the impact of politics. One tool for measuring & presenting stability data e.g. incorporates 20 composite indicators of risk in emerging markets& scores risk according to both their   structural & temporal component. Countries are ranked on a scale of zero a fail state & scale fifty to hundred stable states.

A complete & accurate picture of any countries risk requires analyst with strong reportorial skills, timely, accurate data on a variety of social & political trends. Political never stop moving & risk analyst must be able to follow a nation’s story as it developed. Comparing single nation’s data points over time tell the analyst whether that nation is become more stable or less. 

                                                                                                

Ref –Page, No 74
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